China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing(CFLP) As of January 20, 2020, the survey results of purchasing managers show that in January, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.0 percent, non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.1 percent, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.0 percent. The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance.
percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the âIndustrial Classification for National Economic Activitiesâ (GB/T4754-2017), and 3000 samples, as well as 37 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4000 samples.PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managersâ survey. Purchasing Managers Index for January 2020 In terms of industry, the employment index of service industry was 47.4 percent, down by 0.5 percentage point from last month; that of construction industry was 55.3 percent, rose by 4.6 percentage points from last month.Business activities expectation index was 59.6 percent, higher 0.5 percentage point than last month, continued staying in the high boom zone, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises were more confident in the future market development. This index will be released since February 2018.The purchasing managersâ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. Commenting on the China General Services and Composite PMI data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Chairman and Chief Economist at CEBM Group said: "The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index fell to 51.8 in January from 52.5 in the month before, indicating that the services sector expanded at a slower pace as the manufacturing sector did. This is the lowest reading since January 2005 when it was first released and even lower than November 2008’s figure of 38.8 during the Global Financial Crisis. Production and new work both expand at softer rates. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Key findings. China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index in February plunged to 35.7 from 50 in January. In terms of industry, the new order index of service industry was 50.0 percent, unchanged with last month; that of construction industry was 53.8 percent, rose by 0.9 percentage point from last month.The input price index was 53.3 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than that of last month, which was above the threshold, indicating that the overall input price used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities was increasing. Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Of which, the indices of postal industry, telecommunication, broadcast, television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and insurance industry were above 57.0 percent, and the total business volume was growing rapidly; the business activity index of road transport industry, and real estate industry were in the contraction range.
The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managersâ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. China's official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to a record low of 35.7 in February from 50.0 in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday, well below the 50-point mark that separates monthly growth from contraction. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP. The PMI of small-sized enterprises was 48.6 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than last month and stayed below the threshold.Among the five sub-indices composing PMI, the production index and new orders index were higher than the threshold, while raw materials inventory index, employment index and supplier distribution time index were lower than the threshold.Production index was 51.3 percent, down by 1.9 percentage points from last month, stayed above the threshold, indicating that the pace of manufacturing production expansion has slowed down.New orders index was 51.4 percent, up by 0.2 percentage point from last month, and was above the threshold for three consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing market demand continued to grow.Main raw materials inventory index was 47.1 percent, slightly lower 0.1 percentage point than last month, which was below the threshold, indicating that the main raw material inventory of manufacturing industry decreased.The employment index was 47.5 percent, rose by 0.2 percentage point than last month, while stayed below the threshold, indicating that the employment of manufacturing enterprises has decreased.Supplier distribution time index was 49.9 percent, decreased by 1.2 percentage points than last month, which was slightly lower than the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in manufacturing industry has slowed down.Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)Production And Business Activities Expectation IndexIn January 2020, Chinaâs non-manufacturing business activities index was 54.1 percent, rose by 0.6 percentage point than the previous month, indicating that the overall of non-manufacturing industry has maintained the expansion trend.In the view of different industries, non-manufacturing business activity index of service industry was 53.1 percent, higher 0.1 percentage point than last month.
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